As we’ve been reaching the end of 2015, many experts on the side of government officials have assured the American people that the economical ordeal is almost over and from here on in , slowly but surely, things will gradually progress from good to better. And of course, a slight change for the better was noted in the second half of 2015, if we’re to consider the S&P 500 index (The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index based on which market size, liquidity and industry grouping is determined). This growth, even if it were legit, it would still not be enough reason to put back the smiles on American’s faces; not if we consider there is still a national debt of approximately $18 billion and an ever-plummeting unemployment rate. But the economical resuscitation that supposedly took place in late 2015 in nowhere near a recovery, but rather an artificial attempt of kick-start and old Ford pickup on half-a-gallon of fuel. Starting it won’t be much of a problem, but how far can you keep it going before it stops? This is exactly what’s been happening in late 2015: the artificial growth has been sustained by unconventional means like government bailouts or permissive monetary policies just to up the figures and implicitly quiet down the maces. This is not real economic growth and things will go from bad to worse. And these are the main factors that make financial recovery nearly impossible:
- Unemployment – the numbers speak for themselves
The first official statement regarding unemployment made at the beginning of 2016 (early January) shows an overall unemployment rate of 4.9%. The number in itself is encouraging, as this would be the lowest unemployment rate ever since the crisis began, in 2008. But this number is not real, as it excludes from the count the U6 unemployment figure. What is the U6 unemployment figure you ask? It’s the portion that represents qualified people forced to work in conditions beneath their possibilities; on a daily basis, just to make ends meet. It’s the people that barely surviving on a very low income, unfit for their qualification. If you take the “survivors” into consideration, you get the REAL unemployment figure, which is 11%.
- Central banks – no longer able to bail us out
Whenever the economy fluctuates or plummets, the central banking systems acts like immunity system set on fighting of any damaging elements. This is precisely why, in hard times, the monetary policies of the central banking system changes, adapting to the spending power of the populous. The interests rates lowered and the banks themselves engage in open market operations (OMOs), by buying / selling government securities in the open market in order to stabilize the economy. But this has already been going on for too long and the interest rates in the US have been near zero for a while now (in some EU countries we can even find negative interest rates – NIRP); we’re far from surpassing the economic calamity and the power and influence of the central banks is almost depleted.
- No help from the outside – the EU isn’t doing any better
The world-wide financial crisis that started in 2008 was devastating not only in the US, but throughout the EU zone as well. The first signs of decay became apparent when the central banking system of Iceland collapsed almost overnight in mid 2008; soon after, in early 2009 the central banking systems of Ireland, Greece and Portugal followed. In a desperate attempt to reduce the spreading “of the financial disease” and to stabilize the Euro-community, the ECB (European Central Bank) and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) have tried through quantitative easing to speed up the recovery of the afflicted PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain). But the immense loans were not able to efficiently jumpstart these states, which left them with immense national debts and led to unwanted austerity measures. While most of these states are on their way to economic recovery, Greece is not. Greece was affected beyond repair, as they haven’t been able to repay almost nothing of the astronomical figure they owe. It’s exactly because of their inability to pay the debt, that an anti-austerity government was founded which started referendum based on which Greece should retreat from the EU zone and dropping the common currency (the Euro). Although Greece in itself wouldn’t destabilize the situation much, this will create a terribly dangerous precedent which would (in time) destroy the European Union. The saddest part is, that not only are our friends unable to help, but neither are our enemies. Not even an unlikely alliance to China would help, as their economy suffered an almost fatal crash in mid 2015 and doesn’t seem to be recovering anytime soon.
As far as an overall prediction goes, things aren’t looking well, for anybody. We need a real intervention or a miracle; and fast. If nothing happens, the next hit the US economy takes will most probably be its last.
Other useful resources:Pioneer Survival - Lessons We Should All Learn
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US Water Revolution (Have Plenty of Water when others don't have any!)
Blackout USA (EMP survival and preparedness guide)
Conquering the coming collapse (Financial advice and preparedness )
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Backyard Liberty (Easy and cheap DIY Aquaponic system to grow your organic and living food bank)
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